Europe’s next centacorn race puts Helsing and Trade Republic in view

Europe’s next centacorn is now a live benchmark after Revolut reached a $115 billion valuation in June 2026, becoming the first venture-backed European company valued above $100 billion. Crunchbase, in analysis prepared for Tech Funding News, said fintech and digital banking remain the strongest category for producing the next one, with AI, defence and compute chasing from behind.

A centacorn is a startup valued at $100 billion or more. The label matters less than the operating test behind it: a company has to support a public-market-scale valuation with revenue growth, regulatory position, durable margins or, in some cases, investors willing to price years of execution in advance.

Crunchbase senior research lead Gené Teare used the company’s Unicorn Board data to rank sectors by their likelihood of producing Europe’s next $100 billion venture-backed company by 2032. The analysis gives fintech and digital banking a 65% to 100% chance, ahead of frontier and enterprise AI software at 50% to 65%.

Which European startup could reach $100 billion next?

Revolut is the comparison point. At $115 billion, the London fintech is being valued at roughly 19 times its 2025 revenue of $6 billion and 68 times its 2025 net income of $1.7 billion, according to Tech Funding News. Its valuation rose from $45 billion in 2024 to $75 billion after a November 2025 secondary sale, then to $115 billion in June 2026. The company also secured a full U.K. banking license in March 2026 and has applied for a U.S. national bank charter.

Trade Republic is the closest fintech analogue in the shortlist. The Berlin brokerage reached a €12.5 billion valuation in a December 2025 secondary sale backed by Thiel, nearly doubling its prior valuation without new primary capital. Its product spread across brokerage, banking, payments, wealth and business services gives it a broader route than a single-product financial app, though it still needs about a sevenfold increase to reach the $100 billion level.

AI companies have more market attention, but Crunchbase’s math is less forgiving. Using a 15 to 20 times annual recurring revenue multiple, a software company would need $5 billion to $6.7 billion in ARR to justify a $100 billion valuation by 2032. Lovable reported $500 million in ARR in June 2026, which means it would need about 43% annual growth to reach $5 billion and nearly 49% to reach $6.7 billion. Crunchbase called that a demanding projection.

Several AI contenders disclose less. Mistral AI is reportedly seeking a valuation around €20 billion to finance data centers. Legora has passed $100 million in ARR, while n8n does not consistently publish ARR, leaving outsiders to rely on funding, customer adoption and market size rather than verified revenue. Teare told Tech Funding News that AI software has the deepest pipeline, but most candidates still need several billion dollars of ARR and sustained growth.

Defence and compute are moving up the list

Crunchbase gives defence, aerospace and autonomous systems a 35% to 50% chance, helped by increased European defence spending. Helsing, the Munich defence-AI company, has moved from about €5 billion in 2024 to €12 billion in 2025 and then $18 billion in its latest Series E, without disclosing revenue.

ICEYE, the Finnish satellite-imagery company, was valued at more than €10 billion after a June 2026 Series F, up from €2.4 billion six months earlier. It generated more than €250 million in revenue and €100 million in EBITDA in 2025, implying a valuation of nearly 42 times revenue. At a 10 times revenue multiple, it would need close to $10 billion in annual revenue to reach $100 billion.

AI infrastructure and compute has a 25% to 40% chance in Crunchbase’s ranking. Nscale, a London company that shifted from crypto mining to AI compute in 2024, raised a $2 billion Series C in March 2026 and is valued at $14.6 billion.

The 12 companies on the shortlist

• Helsing, Germany: $18 billion valuation, 5.6 times increase needed.
• Trade Republic, Germany: €12.5 billion valuation, 7 times increase needed.
• Nscale, U.K.: $14.6 billion valuation, 6.8 times increase needed.
• Mistral AI, France: €20 billion valuation in talks, 6.3 times increase needed.
• ICEYE, Finland: over €10 billion valuation, 8 times increase needed.
• Oura, Finland: $11 billion valuation, 9.1 times increase needed.
• Lovable, Sweden: $12 billion valuation in talks, 8.3 times increase needed.
• Vinted, Lithuania: $9.4 billion valuation, 10.6 times increase needed.
• Octopus Energy, U.K.: $9 billion valuation, 11.1 times increase needed.
• Isomorphic Labs, U.K.: $5.5 billion valuation, 18.2 times increase needed.
• Legora, Sweden: $5.6 billion valuation, 17.9 times increase needed.
• Black Forest Labs, Germany: $3.3 billion valuation, 30.3 times increase needed.

Crunchbase ranks AI healthcare and biotech at 15% to 25%, consumer platforms at 10% to 20%, and climate and energy below 10%. Oura filed for a U.S. IPO in May 2026, Vinted has grown through secondary share sales, and Octopus Energy remains below the threshold Crunchbase sees for serious near-term contention.

The shortlist makes one point clear: valuation alone is a weak signal. Trade Republic and Helsing look more credible on sector positioning and current scale, while Mistral AI and Nscale have momentum but limited disclosed financials. The gap between reported revenue and private-market pricing will decide which of these companies can follow Revolut, and which were priced ahead of the evidence.

This story draws on original reporting from TechFundingNews.