Forrester says Europe’s chip push leaves cloud dependence intact

Forrester’s first Global Sovereignty Forecast says Europe’s semiconductor subsidies will not give the region control over the broader technology stack that AI and enterprise software now require. The analyst ranks China and the United States as the clear leaders in tech sovereignty, with scores of 82% and 79%, while Europe’s largest economies remain far behind through 2030.

The report’s Tech Sovereignty Index evaluates countries across AI investment, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, software, datacenter capacity and technical talent. Forrester’s conclusion is blunt for policymakers and enterprise buyers: chip production is only one layer of dependency, and Europe’s more stubborn exposure sits in cloud, software and platform ownership.

Forrester projects limited movement for major European markets over the rest of the decade. Germany and Spain are expected to rise from 34% to 36% on the index by 2030. France moves from 33% to 35%, the UK from 30% to 32%, and Italy from 27% to 29%.

Semiconductors are the area where Forrester sees meaningful improvement. Governments are funding domestic manufacturing capacity, although the forecast does not disclose a total subsidy figure. The analyst expects chip manufacturing scores to climb in several countries by 2030 as new fabs come online or expand.

That progress does not translate into independence, Forrester argues. Europe designs about 1% of the world’s chips, according to the firm, and lacks a domestic counterpart to Nvidia or Qualcomm. In other words, more local fabrication capacity does not solve the upstream problem of who owns the architectures, tools and commercial platforms that define high-value compute markets.

The European Chips Act sets a target for the bloc to produce 20% of global semiconductors by 2030. Forrester expects Europe to reach 11.3%, in part because other regions are also adding capacity. The finding undercuts the idea that manufacturing subsidies alone can move Europe into the top tier of technology autonomy.

Cloud is the larger commercial dependency for many enterprises. Forrester says AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud hold about 65% of the European cloud market. Datacenter growth in Europe is also constrained by high energy costs and planning rules, according to the report.

Forrester is skeptical of US hyperscalers’ sovereign cloud products. AWS, Microsoft and Google have introduced European offerings with separate governance and operational controls, but the analyst says those units remain part of US-owned companies. The location of the datacenter does not change the ownership structure.

That assessment matters for buyers in regulated sectors that are under pressure to reduce exposure to foreign jurisdictions while still using modern AI and cloud infrastructure. For software vendors and cloud partners, it also signals that “sovereign” positioning will face more scrutiny from analysts, customers and governments.

Dario Maisto, principal analyst at Forrester, said geopolitical volatility, competition in AI and semiconductor supply chain risks have pushed tech sovereignty higher on national agendas. He said sovereignty remains concentrated among a small number of global leaders, giving some countries an uneven competitive advantage.

Maisto said countries need to identify strategic dependencies and build durable partnerships that protect data, infrastructure and long-term autonomy. Forrester’s prescription is less about full self-sufficiency than risk management: alliances, open technologies and selective investment where domestic control is realistic.

For Europe, the report frames the chip buildout as necessary but incomplete. More fabs may improve supply security, but the region’s dependence on US cloud providers, software platforms and chip design leaders is still the harder problem for policymakers and enterprise technology chiefs.

This story draws on original reporting from The Register.